Don’t Panic: Limits to what we know about UK Covid-19 PCR testing, inferred infection rates and the rate of false positives

A short paper by Neil et al uses Bayesian analysis to examine the latest (up to 22 Sept) Covid data to determine whether there is evidence to support the Government claim of an exponential 'second wave'. Concludes there remains insufficiently solid evidence, despite the number of tests done, to support any claim there is an exponential increase. There i…