How many lives did the Covid vaccines really save?
A response to Steve Kirsch's challenge
Steve Kirsch asked the following question:
“Based on your analysis, what is the decrease in all-cause mortality from Covid specifically attributable to the vaccines? For an average society like America. So, will it save on average one life per 10,000? One life for 20,000? What would be your best guess? Or did you do absolutely nothing and not saved any lives at all?”
Before we answer we’d like to clarify some ambiguity in the question. All-cause mortality following a vaccine roll-out is the only rational way to assess the efficacy of the vaccine because it tells us whether the benefits of the vaccine outweigh the risks; if all-cause mortality rates are lower in the vaccinated then we can conclude that the vaccine must be saving more people from dying from the disease than it is killing from adverse reactions to it.
Any claims about the vaccine reducing the number of covid deaths are therefore irrelevant in assessing efficacy without considering the overall impact on all-cause mortality. Even if the vaccines really did save 20 million from covid deaths then it would not be effective if it led to more than 20 million deaths from adverse events.
In fact, not only is there now strong evidence of an increase in all-cause mortality among the vaccinated, but we do not believe there is any objective reliable evidence that the covid vaccines saved any PREVENTABLE deaths from covid.
There are nine reasons for coming to this conclusion:
1. No properly conducted randomized trial has provided evidence of any covid deaths avoided
They were never designed to do so [1]. Even if we accept the flawed Pfizer study results of efficacy based on 162 out of 22,000 placebo recipients getting covid compared to only 8 out of 22,000 vaccine recipients [2] not even one of those 162 placebo recipients in the trial who got covid died of covid**.
2. The Pfizer trial actually provides some evidence of increased all-cause mortality in the vaccinated
Although the numbers are too small to be statistically significant, in the 6-month Pfizer follow up there were more all-cause deaths in the vaccine group than the placebo group (15 vs 14 deaths, later 21 vs 17) with just 3 people in total having covid listed as a cause of death (1 in vaccine group, 2 in placebo group) [3]. Moreover, the Pfizer trial exhibited a 36 % higher risk of serious adverse events in the vaccine group [4].
3. Anecdotal evidence: Our own experience shows the vaccines are neither effective nor safe
Since the vaccination programme started, we have observed that it is our vaccinated friends and colleagues who are almost exclusively getting ill from covid. And it is also the vaccinated who we see dying unexpectedly. This anecdotal evidence of increased all-cause mortality in the vaccinated is backed up by the only independent survey evidence attempting to determine the difference in all-cause mortality [5].
4. Official government statistics claiming vaccines reduce covid mortality cannot be trusted
The gatekeepers of such data have a major vested interest in claiming success of the vaccine programme. They therefore do not allow access to the raw data and frequently manipulate the data [6]. Moreover, these data are compromised by the flawed definition of what constitutes a covid death (‘anybody dying of any cause within 28 days of a positive PCR test’) and defining a person getting covid within 14 days of vaccination as ‘unvaccinated’ [7], [8]. These various corrupt definition and data integrity problems all create bias in favour of vaccine efficacy and are also evident in all observational studies claiming vaccines reduce covid mortality.
5. Official government statistics claiming vaccines reduce all-cause mortality are demonstrably flawed
In addition to all the definition and data integrity problems, official data (for example from the UK’s office for National Statistics [9] are further compromised in that 1) many deaths shortly after vaccination are misclassified as unvaccinated and 2) grossly underestimate the population proportion of unvaccinated, which inflates the true mortality rate of the unvaccinated [10]. When adjusted for these biases, the data show that since the start of 2022, all-cause mortality in the ever-vaccinated is higher than the never vaccinated in all-age groups [11].
6. Artificially inflated covid death numbers
Many deaths classified as covid deaths were not caused by covid, and many of those that were could have been prevented if demonstrably successful alternative early protocol treatments were provided. Moreover, many covid deaths may ultimately have been caused by denial of antibiotics to treat the resulting bacterial pneumonia that was the ultimate cause of death [12], [13].
7. National comparisons suggest the vaccines do not reduce covid mortality
Even with the built-in biases relating to the definition of covid death and vaccination classification, those regions of the world with the lowest vaccination rates also have the lowest covid mortality rates (there are 906 times more covid deaths in most vs least vaccinated countries). These differences cannot be explained by inherent population differences (such as countries with younger populations being less at risk from covid death).
8. The claims that millions of covid deaths were prevented by the vaccines are based on flawed models and/or assumptions
Specifically, they were either based on models that subtract the actual number of covid classified deaths since the start of the vaccination programme from the number predicted to die, assuming there was no vaccination programme, and the mortality rate would simply increase nevertheless; or based on the flawed assumption that the vaccines were 95% effective at stopping infection.
9. Independent evidence points to an increase in all-cause mortality among the vaccinated
It is because of the inherent problems with the definition of ‘a covid death’ that we have always argued that vaccine safety and efficacy can only reliably assessed by all-cause mortality. If covid is as deadly as claimed and if the vaccines are as safe and effective as claimed by their proponents, then we should be seeing higher all-cause mortality in the unvaccinated. But increasingly we see evidence to the contrary [14]. In all the heavily vaccinated countries we should have seen lower all-cause mortality in the period since mid-2021 (by which time the majority of the population was vaccinated in these countries) than the main covid period Feb 2020 to mid-2021. But what we have seen is the opposite; almost all such countries are now showing consistent and significant increases in excess deaths. Vaccine proponents have tried to explain this mainly by the effects of lockdowns and ‘long covid’, but publicly available data (even with all its in-build biases in favour of the vaccine safe and effective narrative) shows the vaccines as the most plausible explanation for the increases [15].
**The main trial paper says nothing about any deaths among the 170 participants who got covid (if any had died it is reasonable to expect that this would have been reported); the 3 reported covid deaths were among all 44,000 participants in the follow-up period and we could find no evidence that any of these 3 were among the 170 who got covid in the original trial.
References
[1] Peter Doshi, “Will Covid-19 Vaccines Save Lives? Current Trials Aren’t Designed to Tell Us.,” BMJ (Clinical Research Ed.) 371 (October 21, 2020): m4037,
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m4037.
[2] Pfizer, “Pfizer and BioNTech Conclude Phase 3 Study of COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate, Meeting All Primary Efficacy Endpoints,” 2020,
[3] Fernando P. Polack et al., “Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 MRNA Covid-19 Vaccine (Appendix),” New England Journal of Medicine (Massachusetts Medical Society, December 31, 2020),
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8461570/bin/NEJMoa2110345_appendix.pdf.
[4] Joseph Fraiman et al., “Serious Adverse Events of Special Interest Following MRNA Vaccination in Randomized Trials,” 2022.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4125239.
[5] Steve Kirsch’s newsletter, “My latest all-cause mortality survey is absolutely devastating for the vaccine”.
[6] Arkmedic’s Blog, “The Australian Bureau of (Lies, Damned Lies and) Statistics,” 2022.
[7] Martin Neil et al., “Latest Statistics on England Mortality Data Suggest Systematic Mis-Categorisation of Vaccine Status and Uncertain Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccination,” 2021
https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.14176.20483
[8] Martin Neil, Norman E Fenton, and S. McLachlan, “Discrepancies, and Inconsistencies in UK Government Datasets Compromise Accuracy of Mortality Rate Comparisons between Vaccinated and Unvaccinated,” 2021.
https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.32817.10086
[9] Office for National Statistics, “Deaths by Vaccination Status, England - Office for National Statistics,” 2022,
[10] Martin Neil et al., “Official Mortality Data for England Suggest Systematic Miscategorisation of Vaccine Status and Uncertain Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccination,” 2022.
https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.12472.42248
[11] Norman E Fenton et al., “What the ONS Mortality Covid-19 Surveillance Data Can Tell Us about Vaccine Safety and Efficacy,” 2022.
https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.30898.07362
[12]
[13] Denis G Rancourt, Marine Baudin, and Jérémie Mercier, “Nature of the COVID-Era Public Health Disaster in the USA, from All-Cause Mortality and Socio-Geo-Economic and Climatic Data,” 2021.
https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.11570.32962
[14] Denis G Rancourt, Marine Baudin, and Jérémie Mercier, “COVID-Period Mass Vaccination Campaign and Public Health Disaster in the USA From Age/State-Resolved All-Cause Mortality by Time, Age-Resolved Vaccine Delivery by Time, and Socio-Geo-Economic Data,” 2022.
https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.12688.28164
[15] The Devil’s Advocate: An Exploratory Analysis of 2022 Excess Mortality
the issue remains---was the vaccine necessary at all ?
as you know, for most age groups the chances of survival were in the high 90s% + with people under 40 -98-99% and children 99.9987%
why spend zillions on a vaccine that was not needed, if governments had spare billions, why not spend it on sustainable health care--infrastructure, clean water, food, shelter?
Logic and common sense. So outdated, but much appreciated. I am still baffled about the ignorance amongst the jabbed. Asked my brother (who got Covid again as did half of the familiy) whether his 'repeat jab' or 'booster' was a monovalent or a bivalent shot. He'd never heard of it. This is someone who works on an academic level in a high esteemed education system in the Netherlands. I can only hope I triggered his curiosity. It seems the vaxxed are completely unaware of which substances they let themselves be injected with.
Here in the Netherlands censorship is still enormous. During the last round of vaccinations they first used the old original monovalent vaccin. And it was even formally mentioned. The old stash had to be cleared first. Even the bivalent one (the infamous 8 mice tested flavour) is at best pointless. Some 'lucky'ones probably received the bivalent variant. They're blisfully unaware. The happy jabbers queued to be injected.
And I am the crazy one, not being vaxxed, the conspiracy theorist. Sigh.