Updating our own priors to accommodate new evidence

Revisiting our published work on covid infection prevalence and fatality rates from May 2020

In May 2020 we published one of our first papers on covid-19, in the Journal of Risk Research. Given it isn’t a medical, biological or epidemiology journal this might look like an unusual venue for such a topic, but we published there because they were specifically looking for articles on covid ‘risk’. Also, and perhaps more importantly, we were startin…