WATN Reports
Scientific papers, reports, pre-prints, legal reports and affidavits, book chapters and other publications
Covid-19 mortality rates
Neil, M., Fenton, N.E, Osman, M., & McLachlan, S. (2020). "Bayesian Network Analysis of Covid-19 data reveals higher Infection Prevalence Rates and lower Fatality Rates than widely reported". Journal of Risk Research, https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2020.1778771 . Preprint: MedRxiv, 2020.05.25.20112466. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.25.20112466
Covid-19 diagnosis & attribution
Fenton NE, Neil M, McLachlan S, Osman M (2020), "Misinterpreting statistical anomalies and risk assessment when analysing Covid-19 deaths by ethnicity", 10.13140/RG.2.2.18957.56807 Also here: preprint.
Fenton, N E. (2020). A Note on UK Covid19 death rates by religion: which groups are most at risk? http://arxiv.org/abs/2007.07083
Fenton, N E (2020), "Why most studies into COVID19 risk factors may be producing flawed conclusions-and how to fix the problem", http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.08608
Norman Fenton, Martin Neil, Scott McLachlan and Magda Osman. Misinterpreting statistical anomalies and risk assessment when analysing Covid-19 deaths by ethnicity. https://www.significancemagazine.com/701
PCR testing
Neil M., Fenton N.E., McLachlan S., Osman M. (2020). Don't Panic: Limits to what we know about UK Covid- 19 PCR testing, inferred infection rates and the rate of false positives. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.10554.00966. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/344417823_Don%27t_Panic_Limits_to_what_we_know_about_UK_Covid-_19_PCR_testing_inferred_infection_rates_and_the_rate_of_false_positives
Neil M. “Positive results from UK single gene testing for SARS-COV-2 may be inconclusive, negative or detecting past infections”, 25 February 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.11612
Neil M. BMJ Rapid Response: “Positive results from UK single gene testing for SARS-COV-2 may be inconclusive, negative or detecting past infections”, 11 March 2021. https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n208/rr-3
Fenton, N. E. (2020) How to explain an increasing proportion of people testing positive for COVID if there is neither an increase in proportion of genuine cases nor increase in the false positive rate. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.27902.20806
Symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission
Norman Fenton, Martin Neil, Scott McLachlan. “What proportion of people with COVID-19 do not get symptoms?”, April 2021. http://www.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.33939.60968
Vaccine safety and efficacy
Neil M, Fenton N, and S. McLachlan. The extent and impact of vaccine status miscategorisation on covid-19 vaccine efficacy studies. Pre-print. http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.15216.67846
Discrepancies and inconsistencies in UK Government datasets compromise accuracy of mortality rate comparisons between vaccinated and unvaccinated. October 2021. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/355437113_Discrepancies_and_inconsistencies_in_UK_Government_datasets_compromise_accuracy_of_mortality_rate_comparisons_between_vaccinated_and_unvaccinated/stats. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32817.10086
Neil M, Fenton N, Smalley J., Craig C., Guetzkow J., McLachlan S., Rose, J. Latest statistics on England mortality data suggest systematic miscategorisation of vaccine status and uncertain effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccination, December 2021. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.14176.20483 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356756711_Latest_statistics_on_England_mortality_data_suggest_systematic_mis-categorisation_of_vaccine_status_and_uncertain_effectiveness_of_Covid-19_vaccination
Neil M, Fenton N, Smalley J., Craig C., Guetzkow J., McLachlan S., Rose, J. Official mortality data for England suggest systematic miscategorisation of vaccine status and uncertain effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccination. January 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.28055.09124
Craig, C, Neil M, Fenton N.E. et al “Official mortality data for England reveal systematic undercounting of deaths occurring within first two weeks of Covid-19 vaccination” March 2022 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.12472.42248.
November 2022 45k reads.
Fenton N.E., Neil M, Craig C. McClachlan S., What the ONS Mortality Covid-19 Surveillance Data can tell us about Vaccine Safety and Efficacy. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/365202828_What_the_ONS_Mortality_Covid-19_Surveillance_Data_can_tell_us_about_Vaccine_Safety_and_Efficacy
VAERS
Scott McLachlan, Magda Osman, Kudakwashe et al. “Analysis of COVID-19 vaccine death reports from the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) Database Interim: Results and Analysis”. June 2021. (PDF) Analysis of COVID-19 vaccine death reports from the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) Database Interim: Results and Analysis (researchgate.net)
McLachlan S, Neil M, Choi Y, Craig S, Dube K, Engler J, Osman M, Fenton N E, (2023) "Extended: Analysis of COVID-19 Vaccine Death Reports from the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) Database", http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.23499.87842
Parliamentary, regulatory and legal submissions:
Fenton N.E., Neil M., McLachlan S.A. Response to the Call for Evidence Regarding COVID-19 Data Transparency and Accountability To: UK Parliament, Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee, Commons Select Committee 1 November 2020. Online submission reference is BMV879074.
https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/13847/default/
Response to official complaint to UK Statistics Regulator.
Norman Fenton Testimony to the Corona Investigative Committee (Germany): "How flawed data shaped the covid crisis and its response to it", 12 May 2023. Full testimony (presented 12 May 2023) is here (my testimony starts at 2:29:28): https://odysee.com/@Corona-Ausschuss:3/s155de:c
Norman Fenton Video of expert witness testimony in court (Jakarta, Indonesia) 20 July 2022, in the case contesting vaccine mandates brought against the President & Health Minister of Indonesia.
Norman Fenton Informed consent: statement on covid policies affecting children and young adults
Treatment
Martin Neil and Norman Fenton “Bayesian hypothesis testing and hierarchical modelling of ivermectin effectiveness in treating Covid-19”. (PDF) Bayesian hypothesis testing and hierarchical modelling of ivermectin effectiveness in treating Covid-19 (researchgate.net)
Martin Neil and Norman Fenton. Ivermectin for Prevention and Treatment of COVID-19 Infection: A Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, and Trial Sequential Analysis to Inform Clinical Guidelines. American Journal of Therapeutics, 28, e434–e460, July 2021. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8415517/
Nebraska Attorney General's October 14, 2021 legal opinion on prescribing Ivermectin cites our Bayesian analysis (page 16 & footnotes 101 and 104). Rules that it can be prescribed with informed consent https://ago.nebraska.gov/sites/ago.nebraska.gov/files/docs/opinions/21-017_0.pdf
Masking
Fenton, N. E. The Bangladesh Mask study: a Bayesian perspective. (2022). doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.26189.92649
Contact tracing:
Osman, M., Fenton, N. E., McLachlan, S., Lucas, P., Dube, K., Hitman, G. A., Kyrimi, E, Neil, M, (2020)."The thorny problems of Covid-19 Contact Tracing Apps: The need for a holistic approach", Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Vol. 4, 57-61. Published version. Also available here.
McLachlan, S., Lucas, P., Dube, K., Hitman, G. A., Osman, M., Kyrimi, E., … Fenton, N. E. (2020). Bluetooth Smartphone Apps: Are they the most private and effective solution for COVID-19 contact tracing? http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.06621
McLachlan, S., Lucas, P., Dube, K., McLachlan, G. S., Hitman, G. A., Osman, M., Kyrimi, E, Neil, M, Fenton, N. E. (2020). "The fundamental limitations of COVID-19 contact tracing methods and how to resolve them with a Bayesian network approach". https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.27042.66243
Censorship
Fenton, N. E., Neil, M. (2023). "The Lancet and the Pfizer Vaccine: A Case Study in Academic Censorship and Deceit in the Covid Era", http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.29792.56321