18 Comments

I appreciated that walk-through. I wish people would apply this same care in judging "causation" of poor outcomes after infection with a particular virus like polio, HPV, or measles. Perhaps its because society's focus on universal vaccine use to prevent infection has been so widespread (not to mention profitable), but in that arena, NO ONE wants to talk about the how the vast majority of people naturally exposed do not experience poor outcomes such as paralysis, blindness or death, and the fact that this must mean a congenital/environmental factor is necessary ALONG WITH the presence of a virus to result in such poor outcomes. I've always been baffled by the lack of interest in pinpointing the exact combination of factors that turn what is ordinary and unthreatenning in most people (the presence of the viruses mentioned) into a grave health threat.

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Dec 22, 2022Liked by Norman Fenton

Thank you. I think Kirsch is doing great work. His occasional incorrect claims sadly undermine it. You’re doing a great service in helping to keep him honest (a turn of phrase -- I’m not suggesting Kirsch is deliberately deceptive. In fact I’m certain he’s not).

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Dec 22, 2022Liked by Norman Fenton

Excellent analysis here. Thanks. We all need to be careful to look and see rather than look and find justification for what we want to see.

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My friend from high school, male 58 years old, physician, healthy and lives in Los Angeles area. Just diagnosed with SPS. He is in terrible pain constantly. Can this really be just a coincidence ?

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Rats. I SO wanted the facts to support my belief that Celine's tragic medical condition was caused by the thing she sincerely promoted for everyone else - i.e. repeated doses of an experimental product known to be neurotoxic.

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Not that I really understand but surely, if the chances of getting this illness randomly is something like 1 in a million but the chances of getting it after being vaccinated with anything is something like 1 in 10,000 and the chances of getting it after a covid jab are a recognised side effect and if Celine Dion is a known advocate of getting jabbed then the assumption that she "just got it" through no action of her own is unlikely. I don't actually know the numbers and am speaking purely as an idiot but it seems to me that the chances of her getting this randomly without the jab are really remote whereas the chances of her getting it after being jabbed when it is a recognised side effect are pretty good. (does this even make sense?)

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And yet, another terribly jab injured soul, who killed himself due to his suffering, was also diagnosed with SPS among many other diagnoses.

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At the risk of sounding dumb (100% I'm sure), but if not 99.6% then what is a better estimate? Or just not possible even with Bayes?

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The thing is, for an "experimental new drug" all of these stats should be available to analyze. It is very suspicious when it is not available, seeing as they wanted even restaurant owners to check who was vaxxed or not? And Pfizer wanted 70 years to hide the data with no liability ever.

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