1 Dec 2021 upate: see update to this article showing that the same statistical illusion of efficacy occurs if newly vaccinated deaths are classified as unvaccinated. To evaluate the risk/benefit of a vaccine for treating a virus, such as covid-19, we can compare the all-cause mortality rate of vaccinated against unvaccinated people on a periodic basis. If the mortality rate for those vaccinated is consistently lower than that for unvaccinated then we might conclude the vaccine must be beneficial.
Is vaccine efficacy a statistical illusion?
Is vaccine efficacy a statistical illusion?
Is vaccine efficacy a statistical illusion?
1 Dec 2021 upate: see update to this article showing that the same statistical illusion of efficacy occurs if newly vaccinated deaths are classified as unvaccinated. To evaluate the risk/benefit of a vaccine for treating a virus, such as covid-19, we can compare the all-cause mortality rate of vaccinated against unvaccinated people on a periodic basis. If the mortality rate for those vaccinated is consistently lower than that for unvaccinated then we might conclude the vaccine must be beneficial.