Discover more from Where are the numbers? by Norman Fenton and Martin Neil
Postmodern science delivers immortality benefits
The ONS data shows that the vaccines are delivering the prospect of immortality whether you take them or not
Consensus opinion across those who have looked in detail at the ONS deaths by vaccine status data is that it is full of errors and biases and, as such, it is near useless for any inference we might wish to make about vaccine efficacy or safety.
In all of our deep dive reports we have compared ONS data against historical actuarial mortality rates. We believe that only by comparing with expectations can we determine if there is a pandemic and whether the vaccines are putting a dent in it, or indeed adding to the mortality burden.
However, comparing mortality rates ‘within’ the ONS data set doesn’t tell you whether the data as a whole stands up to scrutiny. For that we need to test against historical data and previous reports.
This table shows that between the old and new ONS reports the mortality rates changed significantly, with the mortality of unvaccinated and vaccinated older groups now exhibiting lower mortality figures, dropping by between -6% to -31%. How can this be? In contrast, for the unvaccinated younger age groups the mortality increased by between 23% and 38% between ONS reports. Odd. This is a massive change that cannot be explained. You’d think they would have checked for stability but obviously they are churning out garbage.
So, comparing across ONS reports shows dramatic changes that cannot be explained.
But much more significant than this is the fact that the mortality rates are crazily different from those from 2016. How crazy? Now you’d think in this age of real time big data we’d have the 2016 mortality rates at our fingertips, but guess what - all we could find was this grainy image on an ONS web site:
From this we can produce rough estimates of the mortality burden by age group and compare them against the latest ONS mortality figures. The green line is the all-cause mortality rate per 100K people for that age group from 2016 and the red and blue lines are the all-cause mortality rates for the ever vaccinated and unvaccinated from the latest ONS report.
Plainly something is very wrong with this data. The most obvious thing is that, across all age groups, the all-cause mortality rate is significantly LESS from February 2022 than one would expect, compared to 2016, for BOTH the vaccinated and unvaccinated. And this occurs at a time when excess deaths in the UK are starting to increase and the covid case rate has plummeted, as can be seen from week 8 in this chart (the covid case scale on the right-hand side is cases per 100K people):
So, more people are dying but in the ONS data set people are living longer!
There are a few things we can conclude from this. Either deaths are not being recorded in the ONS data set, and they don’t bother to check (maybe they are with the coroners’ courts or ‘in the post’), or, if the data is correct then the vaccines are so good, they are improving mortality for everyone, whether you take them or not. Maybe all of that ‘vaccine shedding’ is a good thing after all? And with more of the vaccines we will achieve immortality!
It seems to us that detailed blow-by-blow take downs of ONS are pretty laboured and this is the simplest and most obvious way of showing how useless the ONS data is. You don’t really need any more than this to win the argument. It’s clearly not representative of anything. It’s postmodern science.