Scottish cardiac ambulance data shows worrying increase in incidents

Youngest age groups worst affected

In early 2021 we wrote about the stark difference in trends between the ‘official’ UK Government data on covid case numbers and the number of 999 and ambulance calls for covid triage:

More on the inconsistency between the official NHS "COVID Pathways" data and the official "COVID cases" data

In our view the ambulance data was a far more reliable indicator of covid illness than the ‘case’ numbers and showed that, while there was a genuine peak in March 2020, there were only small seasonal increases thereafter. This contrasted to the official claims that, for example, during the winter of 2020-21 the number of case numbers were five times higher than the March 2020 peak.

Consequently, I was intrigued this week when David Scott of UK Column alerted me to some very interesting data provided by Public Health Scotland on the number of cardiovascular incidents involving the ambulance service. The data is available here:

https://scotland.shinyapps.io/phs-covid-wider-impact/

(Select cardiovascular, Scottish ambulance service - note that data by age stratification is not available).

While it is possible to search by different reporting regions, I will just comment on the total for all reporting regions combined. Overall, since mid-August 2020 there has been a significant weekly increase in cardiovascular incidents in Scotland (averaging about 30% higher than the corresponding period in 2018-19), with especially large peaks between May- Sept 2021 (over 60% higher than the corresponding period in 2018-19):

But the differences in age group patterns are interesting as shown in the following figures (although note that the y-axes are slightly different in each case):

Age 15-44: Main peak around July 2021 (83%) but consistently high since then (average weekly 40% higher) and never below 14% higher

Age 45-65: First peak in May 2021 (56%), highest peak July 2021 (72% increase). Above 0% increases ever since, averaging 28%)

Age 64-75: First peak in Feb 2021 (47%), highest peak July 2021 (72% increase). Above 0% increases ever since, averaging 25%)

Age 74-85: First peak in April 2021 (34%), highest peak July 2021 (52% increase). Several below 0% since, averaging 16%)

Age 85+: First major peak around Feb 2021 (63%) highest peak July 2021 (80% increase). Several below 0% since, averaging 25%)

As the above graphs have slightly different y-axes it is useful to directly compare the youngest age group (11-44) with one of the oldest age groups (75-84) on the same axis:

Note that:

• The percentage increases in the young age group have been consistently higher than the older age group.

• In the young age group the average weekly increase peaked around July 2021 (83%) but has been consistently high since then (average weekly 40% higher) and never below 14% higher.

• In the older age group, the first peak was in April 2021 (34%), highest peak July 2021 (52% increase). Several below 0% since (averaging 16%).

So, in summary it seems:

1. The youngest have been proportionally worst affected with serious increased cardiac incidents.

2. There is some evidence of peaks in serious cardiac incidents occurring shortly after vaccination peaks in each of the different age groups.

In case anybody suspects that the differences and large fluctuations are due to chance because of low incident numbers it is important to note the weekly numbers provided since 2020 in the following chart. The oldest age group has the lowest weekly number (averaging around 130 since start of 2021) while the 45-64 age group has the highest weekly number (averaging around 410 since start of 2021). These numbers are not small enough to have created the different patterns by chance.

This article originally appeared in UK Column 3rd January 2022.