Note: As new information becomes available I have been updating this article, so some of the conclusions are different to the original version.
Some more recent comments by me about the data are in this interview with Children’s Health Defence.
The data and its provenance
Anybody who has followed our writings over the last 3 years will know that we believe there is overwhelming evidence that the covid vaccines are neither effective nor safe. Contrary to ludicrous claims made by official Government sources there is no evidence the vaccines have saved any lives (let alone the millions claimed), but rather evidence that all-cause mortality in the vaccinated is now higher than that in the unvaccinated.
In the last few days there have been claims that leaked vaccination record data from New Zealand provides the most comprehensive evidence yet of how unsafe the vaccines are. A description and analysis of the data is provided in this article and MIT presentation by Steve Kirsch. Because Steve quoted me it appears that I have unwittingly become a key figure in the debate over the data.
I, along with numerous colleagues, was asked to look at an anonymised version of the dataset. I was told this was accurate, reliable record-level data on a very large, random subset of the vaccinated population (it contains over 2 million vaccination records) for the first 2 years of the covid vaccination programme. Any conclusions (including those below) about vaccine safety based on the dataset are only valid if these assumptions about the data are true. Since looking at the data there have been claims that the dataset may not be random since it contains a disproportionate number vacinees who died during the 2-year period. This would mean the data is biased, in which case most of the conclusions made about it would not be generalisable. Igor Chudov has also expressed concerns about the provenance of the data. However, having spoken with Steve Kirsch today, he says that there are widespread misunderstandings about the data and it is not biased. For a start he says that the datatset is the complete set of ‘pay-per-dose’ vaccination records and therefore there is no biased sampling at all. He says:
The people within the group is representative of the total population. There are 2.2 million people in the group, and there are 4 million records. Each of those records is a Vaccination Record.
There were 1.348 billion person days in the "vaccinated state" in the sample. There were 37,283 deaths. This is an average mortality rate of 1009 for the vaccinated people. An average population is 800 deaths per 100K person years. But this population is more elderly skewed let's call it 900 deaths per 100K/p-y. Well, vaccinated people will die, on average, about 10% higher than normal. So that's 990 deaths per 100K p-y. Well our numbers are 1,009 deaths per person year which is 1.9% higher. That is hardly biased.
What is in the dataset
Each record in the dataset corresponded to a vaccination and included information about: age of vaccinee, batch number, vaccination centre, date and dose number, and number of days to death if that person died during the 2-year period. However, there were always fundamental limitations of the dataset if we were to draw any firm conclusions about vaccine safety from it. The most obvious was the absence of any records of unvaccinated people during the period. This meant that, for example, comparisons of all-cause mortality between vaccinated and unvaccinated could only be made based on external, more general (and often disparate) population mortality and excess death data. For those who died there was also no information about whether cause of death was recorded as covid.
It is a very large dataset - far too big to be opened in Excel - and so required specialist database tools and skills to analyse it thoroughly. Because of my rather extreme personal circumstances (and because the kind of database skills required in this case are outside my area of expertise) I relied on others to provide some summary information that I could only analyse briefly.
The safety signals in the data
I had been told that the most significant safety issues for the vaccine in the dataset was revealed by a) time series analysis of the various doses by age group and b) clusters of deaths associated with certain batches.
I looked at Steve Kirsch’s various time series analyses and felt that, even accounting for inevitable ‘survivor bias’ (the more jabs a person gets, the quicker they are likely to die after their last jab) there was some evidence of increased risk the more doses a person gets. Moreover, given Steve’s comments about the datatset being the complete set of ‘pay-per-dose’ vaccination records, this conclusion seems robust even if there were a biased proportion of vaccinee deaths in the dataset. Also (as per my above quote in Steve’s presentation) I felt that the data provided further support for the hypothesis that the vaccine was increasing the mortality rate in the older population (something which we had already concluded based on the most recent ONS data). This latter observation also seems to be robust even after taking account of the confounding effect of disproportionate number of vaccinee deaths.
What I am now much more concerned about are the conclusions I originally stated about the clusters of deaths associated with a small number of Pfizer batches. Because I was told this was especially revealing I asked for the following very simple summary information for each batch at each vaccination site:
the total number of people vaccinated
the total number of deaths
average days from last vaccination to death
the average age of the vaccinated
I said I would do a basic probabilistic analysis of the clusters with that summary information.
My small analysis of the strange batch data
What I received was a file with only the total number of people vaccinated and the total number of deaths for 118 batches (so I did not have the critical information about average days from last vaccination to death and average age of the vaccinated, but was assured there were no major differences between the batches):
The total number of vaccinees associated with these 118 batches was 2,213,062. The largest number in any batch was 101,896 and the smallest was 38. The total number of deaths is 37,073 so the average death rate is 1.68%
There were 1228 deaths in the largest batch, so the death rate for the largest batch is 1.21%.
However, five batches have a death rate of over 10%:
The question is: what can we conclude about vaccine safety given the fact that these batches had such a high death rate compared to the average?
It is important to note that there are possible causal explanations unrelated to vaccine safety that could lead to batches with such unusually high death rates. Specifically:
Explanation A (very elderly cohort given early) : Most obviously, we would likely observe such results if these batches were given to cohorts of the very elderly/very ill early in the vaccination programme. In this case it is inevitable that many more than average would die anyway within a two-year period after vaccination.
Explanation B (incomplete/biased batch data): It is also possible that batches with such exceptionally unusual death rates would be observed if the data were incomplete and non random; for example, if the data does not include all those vaccinated from specific batches, with those dying disproportionally included in the data.
Explanation C (seasonality): It is possible that batches were given during periods of especially high population death rates unrelated to vaccine reactions.
If, as had been suggested to me, that the average days from last vaccination to death and average age of the vaccinated was similar across all batches, then it would be reasonable to rule out explanations A and B. But, it now appears that this is not the case. I did an analysis before knowing this. I said that, if these explanations can be ruled out (so we are assuming all batches are similar in terms of distribution of age of vaccinees and time vaccines were given) then we can estimate the probability that, by chance alone, we would see such batches with exceptionally high death rates. Specifically, let H be the hypothesis that “the vaccine and its delivery is similar across batches”, then:
Under hypothesis H it is reasonable to assume that the ‘true’ average death rate is approximately 1.68% since this is the overall death rate for all those vaccinated.
Under Binomial distribution assumptions, the probability that in 118 batches we would observe at least one batch whose size is at least 500, with a death rate above 20% is infinitesimally small (less than 1 in 10 billion). So, the batch 1 observation would be essentially impossible under hypothesis H.
Even if we ignore batch 1, we have 4 other batches out of 118 (all of size >220) that have a death rate above 10%. The probability that, in a specific batch of size 221 the death rate would be above 10% is less than 1 in 6 million. The probability that at least 1 out of 118 batches would have a death rate above 10% is about 1 in 53,000. However, the probability that at least 4 out of 118 batches would have a death rate above 10% is less than 1 in 100 billion.
Therefore, if explanations A, B and C could be ruled out, the hypothesis of similarity of batches could be rejected with near certainty. In that case the conclusion would be that chance alone cannot be the cause of the exceptionally high death rates in these batches. In the absence of any other causal explanation, that would mean that in these batches the vaccines (or their delivery) were genuinely more deadly than expected.
Conclusions
If the dataset is a real, unbiased and representative subset of those vaccinated, then it is potentially one of the most important publicly available datasets for examining covid vaccine safety, despite the fundamental limitation imposed by absence of data on the unvaccinated. It provides evidence of lack of safety of the vaccine. However, some of the conclusions drawn from the data would be confounded if the claims that it contains a disproportionate number of vaccinee deaths is true. Steve Kirsch is adamant that there is no such bias because it a complete record of all ‘pay-per-dose’ vaccinations. If Steve is correct about this, then his conclusions about the evidence of lack of safety are reasonable.
What we can probably discount is the claim concerning batches with exceptionally high mortality rates. The claim that these batches were especially deadly due to the contents of the vaccine or its delivery is confounded by their very different age and time of vaccination profiles.
Dr. Fenton, your rock-solid integrity regarding honest interpretation based exclusively on the facts given and not on unverifiable assumptions is truly praiseworthy. Personally, I am very suspicious about the vaccines, the disease itself, and much else about this pandemic experience, involving as it has the aggressively undemocratic imposition of scientifically unfounded procedures and regulations by governments that clearly do not exist to serve their populations, but rather to serve their wealthy donors and themselves. Nevertheless, there is no excuse for sloppy analysis on the part of unbiased experts such as yourself, even though a strong, public-awareness awakening message calling for skepticism and close observation of the irresponsible (or worse---blatantly evil) politicians and so-called public health experts would be a valuable and potentially life-saving result. Such a short-term bonus would eventually undermine confidence in the non-politically motivated scientists' opinions, so regardless of how strongly some of us may yearn for a clear and devastating declaration of vaccine damage and irresponsibility in the government/bureaucratic sphere, your pellucid clarity and honesty are undoubtedly the best way out of this scandalous situation.
In short, many thanks for your unyielding honesty and care in presenting your methods and results.
Dear Dr. Noman Fenton, your analysis is excellent if we only take into account this database, but is horribly fuzzy, if we don't take into account all the other information we have:
1. Argentina Government stats: 9 out of 10 COVID deaths were vaccinated. 10 out of 10 if over 60 years old. Many other governments have shown stats backing excess mortality after haccination.
2. Howbad.info: not all batches were born equal. 5% explain over 90% of deaths. This analysis was corroborated by others as well, since the dataset is open.
3. Your own ONS analysis: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.30898.07362
4. Official recognition by many Governments that they caused clots, heart attacks (myocarditis), and even that people shouldn't get more than 4 doses.
5. Recognition of Health Canada that Pfizer had widespread DNA "contamination" including the sequence of carcinogenic monkey virus (SV40), which could explain turbo-cancers together with Moderna's cancer patented sequence inserted in the spike protein.
6. There's absolutely no evidence to show that your initial assumptions were wrong, therefore you should stick to the damning conclusion until real evidence is presented by the NZ government. Why are you backing down without evidence? Why are you withdrawing the stark conclusion with fuzzy logic? Any undisclosed pressure?
By the way, if there was no problem with the vaccines:
a) why would all governments hide or destroy the database (Argentina ordered it by a presidential decree!)
b) why did dominant media and social media censor this?
c) why did wasabi delete Steve Kirsch account with the dataset?
7. Generalized weaponization of vaccines/haccines to exterminate the population:
https://scientificprogress.substack.com/p/vaxxed-v-unvaxxed/
https://scientificprogress.substack.com/p/depopulation-or-extermination
https://scientificprogress.substack.com/p/depop-vaccines-no-myth
What’s your best way to wake-up those who don’t want to open their eyes?
Please share your most effective wake-up strategies.
The more the awakened, the sooner this nightmare will be over!
If the person doesn’t want to discuss injections, then food is a good start:
Why is food poisoning legal?
Artificial sweeteners, MSG, PFAS, Glyphosate ... go organic!
https://scientificprogress.substack.com/p/why-is-food-poisoning-legal
Then I’d follow with "Are you opened to see if the actual data matches your opinion?"
Then I start showing some of the shortcomings of the Pharma industry:
https://scientificprogress.substack.com/p/system-failure-ai-exposes-zero-government
Then, show that every single person in the planet should be suing Pfizer for deliberately injecting an undisclosed carcinogenic monkey virus (SV40) into the cell nucleus of the clueless biohacked, as officially recognized by Health Canada !!!
If he doesn’t like the topic, I’d show this video (all you need is 10 secs in the middle, who doesn’t have 10 seconds for you):
https://odysee.com/@ImpossiblyWackedOutWorld:f/WTC-7-Free-Falling:8
(caveat about the beginning: pot destroys your brain + “Raises Risk of Heart Attack and Stroke”)
9/11: two "planes", yet the third tower (WTC7) imploded, free falling on its footprint like in a controlled demolition. It was out of reach, and all 7 World Trade Center towers needed to be rebuilt, not the closer towers not belonging to World Trade Center... and the “owner” took an insurance policy for the WTC against terrorism, just months before, when no one was taking them … he didn’t show up for work precisely on 9/11 … just as his 2 grown up siblings (they never skipped work before). The inside information about the FUTURE 9/11 event helped masons make trillions by shorting the stock exchange: the records were deleted by the SEC so they wouldn't be prosecuted !!!
Watch amazing short and more evidence here:
https://scientificprogress.substack.com/p/911-2-planes-3-towers
Please watch all of this! Your life depends on it, because there's a plan to murder 95% of the global population by 2050… written on the masonic Georgia guide-stones: “Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 … ”:
https://scientificprogress.substack.com/p/depopulation-or-extermination
- J6: The false flag operation of the fake riot was planned, incited and guided by FBI agents, who broke into the Capitol !!! The same mason-plot was copy-pasted to disband the insurrection against the stolen elections in Brazil! All intel agencies (CIA, FBI, NSA) were founded by masons and are run by them for their own nefarious goals.
https://scientificprogress.substack.com/p/j6-what-you-need-to-know
It's such a mason manual that they organized the same J6 play in Brazil when it was proven that the voting machines owned by mason Soros, were rigged:
https://scientificprogress.substack.com/p/the-2020-american-coup
https://scientificprogress.substack.com/p/dominion-over-us
- At least since the 90s, vaccines are weaponized to reduce the population, for example:
1. Adding hCG to infertilize women: lab detected in 30 countries
2. Overpassing the FDA 10 ng limit to human DNA “contamination” by 2000%, thus causing neuro-damage (autism, asperger, tics, dyslexia in 29% of kids, etc.) and childhood cancer epidemic (n.b. leukemia, non-Hodgkin’s lymphomas)
Check soundchoice.org or videos at bottom after this page:
https://scientificprogress.substack.com/p/wake-up-videos
- COVID was designed as a primer for even more lethal COVID haccines:
https://scientificprogress.substack.com/p/the-real-covid-timeline
https://scientificprogress.substack.com/p/not-vaccine-not-gene-therapy-just
https://scientificprogress.substack.com/p/what-do-bioweapons-have-to-do-with
- Wake up videos:
https://scientificprogress.substack.com/p/wake-up-videos
https://scientificprogress.substack.com/p/2050-youll-go-nowhere-and-youll-be
- It's genocide for depopulation:
https://scientificprogress.substack.com/p/depop-vaccines-no-myth
- Their main source of power apart from sin-empowered demons? NOT a coincidence that the USA left dollar convertibility to gold in 1971, precisely triggering the exponential government deficit coupled with the trade deficit and inflation.
This is the Achilles’ heel of all nations: masonic and satanic secret societies counterfeit paper money and launder trillions with which they buy Banks, seats in the Federal Reserve (the only private run Central Bank in the world), political careers and parties, puppeticians, listed corporations, media, healthcare corporations and organizations, universities, foundations, judges, etc.:
Confessions of illuminati, David Rockefeller:
https://scientificprogress.substack.com/p/david-rockefeller-illuminati
Confessions of ex-illuminati Ronald Bernard (all lodges obey the same master, Satan):
http://youtu.be/JAhnCdXqPww
The way out of this mess:
1. Create an easy system for real money: private currencies/warrants based on real assets, goods, services, etc. (gold, corn, oil, distance/volume/weight transportation, labor human hour/minute, etc.)
2. Ban legal tender. Let the free markets decide which real-currencies/valuables/warrants they prefer to trade with
3. Ban paper-backed currencies (unlike real-backed ones of point 1.)
4. Enforce a Legal Banking Reserve of 100% of deposits (so banks don't create money based on air) and therefore there's no excuse for a Central Bank, because there would be no risk of bank-runs since all their loans are fully backed with deposits
Anything else you might think of?
Now, are you really ready for this?:
The full PLAN exposed:
https://scientificprogress.substack.com/p/the-plan-revealed
16 laws we need to exit Prison Planet
https://scientificprogress.substack.com/p/laws-to-exit-planet-prison
Plllllease, on my knees, don’t believe me, just do your own homework by searching the following in yandex.com, mojeek.com (includes crawl date filter and substack search):
Satanic Ritual Abuse, Child Satanic Ritual Murder.
https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/rpn5aj/i_have_found_the_perfect_uncensored_search_engines/
https://www.deepwebsiteslinks.com/uncensored-search-engines-for-anonymous-searching/
President John Quincy Adams: “Masonry ought forever to be abolished. It is wrong - essentially wrong - a seed of evil, which can never produce any good.”
If you are a mason or know a mason, ask him to ask his 33° master to put in writing and sign it, who is "the great architect" and that he is not Lucifer. If he refuses, then he’ll know who he is really serving, Satan: tell him to get out of masonry NOW. Sooner or later he’ll be required to trample on a cross to get to a higher degree.
Confessions of ex-illuminati Ronald Bernard (all lodges obey the same master, Satan):
http://youtu.be/JAhnCdXqPww
Confessions of a former mason (Serge Abad-Gallardo):
https://www.ncregister.com/interview/confessions-of-a-former-freemason-officer-converted-to-catholicism
Confession of 33rd degree master mason - Masons worship deities/demons
https://rumble.com/v294ksc-words-from-33rd-degree-master-mason-rare-video-masons-worship-all-sorts-of-.html
Masonry's Satanic Connection
https://odysee.com/@HiddenTruths:c/Masonry's-Satanic-Connection:4
Masonry's Satanic Doctrine | From Their Own Books
https://rumble.com/v2wg24a-masonrys-satanic-doctrine-from-their-own-books.html
Do Freemasons Worship Lucifer? Evidence They Don't Want You To See
https://odysee.com/@John_4-14:a/Do-Freemasons-Worship-Lucifer%EF%BC%9F-Evidence-They-Don't-Want-You-To-See-%EF%BD%9C-Hidden-Agendas---Walter-Veith:0
Satanic Ritual Abuse and Secret Societies [1995] [VHS]
https://odysee.com/@thisworldworks:1/satanic-ritual-abuse-and-secret-societies-1995:3
Satanic Pedophilia Torture and Blood - Dark Satanic Secrets Revealed
https://odysee.com/@Gmail.com:52/822821884_Satanic-Pedophilia-Torture-and-Blood---Dark-Satanic-Secrets-Revealed:4
UNITED NATIONS LUCIFER AND THE LUCIFER TRUST
https://odysee.com/@dynosarus:c/UNITED-NATIONS-LUCIFER-AND-THE-LUCIFER-TRUST:4