The Prosecutor’s Fallacy and the IPCC Report

The Global Warming Policy Foundation has published an article based on a previous post here:

This all refers to the 2013 IPCC report and not the most recent version (since it arose from my work on the BBC documentary “Climate Change by Numbers in 2015”). However, the claim of 95% certainty that humans caused most of the recent warming is one that has continued to be widely accepted and even unchallengable. But it was always a misinterpretation of what the computer modelling data were saying.

The GWPF have made a fine job of this publication, but there is a formatting error in the presentation of Bayes Theorem in the Appendix (the line for ‘division’ appears twice in the wrong place).

Update 17 Sept 2023: Some commenters have been asking why they can’t find the documentary online and whether it had been ‘cancelled’. It certainly has not been cancelled because it was a powerful propaganda piece for man-made climate change; the BBC still show it every so often as a repeat and sell it to other networks. The BBC are fiercely protective of copyright - any attempt to post it anywhere results in the video being taken down. I can't even post 15 second clips of it on you tube - but I did manage to post the 2-minute trailer on rumble:

And if you go to the BBC website you will find a few clips

This one is of me presenting the modelling data. I was deeply unhappy with what I was asked to present here - the climate scientist ‘experts’ who scripted this assured me that this was all correct when I expressed my concerns during filming; but I found out later that even they did not really believe this.