"Q: All your agency has ever published was data showing that unvaccinated are dying at a higher rate than vaccinated, but of course multiple researchers have shown problems with that, which you have partially acknowledged, yet you refuse to publish raw data and calculations.
Therefore, would your agency ever publish an analysis that shows that vaccinated are dying at an equal (or even higher) rate than unvaccinated, if that was truly the case?"
Great work everyone. Considering we’ve been waiting for this data for many months now, you would have thought that they could have supplied better more reliable information. It’s clear they’ve spent the time trying to obfuscate; undercounting the denominator, trying to support the narrative; and now with all the independent analysis, the ONS does not look fit for purpose. This needs further reporting to the ombudsman.
Yes, the ONS report is largely of no value. Just a couple more points:
- The data excludes 3% of the population who did not respond to the 2021 census . That’s around 1.7million people. It also excludes 4.7 million people who were included in the census but who could not be linked to an NHS number. So that’s 6.4 million people who were excluded over 11% of the population of England. If they didn’t have NHS numbers then they’re unlikely to have been vaccinated.
- The notes to the report state that “the back series is produced from April 2021 rather than January 2021 because of the requirement for individuals to be alive on Census Day, 21 March 2021”
Fake data, missing data, hidden data ... it's all so tiresome.
“Silence can only be equated with fraud where there is a legal or moral duty to speak or where an inquiry left unanswered would be intentionally misleading.”
- U.S. vs. Prudden - U.S. Court of Appeals - Fifth Circuit - April 1970
Adding the Unvaccinated and Ever vaccinated for 2021 April/Dec and comparing to ONS published database for All Cause deaths 2020-21 forr the same April to Dec period, there appears to be more than 64,000 deaths missing from the latest report. If correct another fudge of the data! Maybe someone can validate.
I am just so exasperated reading this. I don't know how you guys doing the analysis remain so professional and calm. Clearly the civil servants have done the job they are paid to do - screw up the data, frustrate the critics and plant a 'vaccines are wonderful' story in the Daily Mail.
Age 64 I suddenly find statistics a compelling subject, who'd a thawt it!! Seriously well done people. you have shaken me from my middle class stupor over the last few months.
To a certain extent they are dependent on different health reporting/NHS systems and records. However, they have been aware of the problems for a long time and should be muhc more open about the limitations of the data
My parents' close friends' daughter works for the ONS and I remember them saying that their daughter had told them privately that they were cooking and manipulating the economic data such as inflation under instruction by the government... This was waaaaaay before the """""pandemic""""" ... Also I remember job adverts for us mathematics graduates at university - the ONS job ads always asked for much lower degree results than the other graduate/research career jobs did. Figures :-)
I was thinking about how the proportions of unvaccinated goes up after about march of 2022 in the ONS data. I sort of naively expected this to be non-increasing. Then I began to wonder if this increase may be somehow capturing disproportionate mortality in the vaccinated?
Also, the tables that seem to have counts for the vertical access, are they counts or ratios? Seems to me ratios would more clearly communicate the reality, as counts can be misleading.
Professor Fenton: To clarify is Ben from US Mortality saying that when you group together all vaccinated categories, they are dying at higher rates than the unvaccinated? If so that seems pretty darn compelling.
Not exactly. According to the ONS , using their ASMR metric if you group together all the different categories of vaccinated their rate of mortality is lower than the never vaccinated. But what Ben's plots show is that some of the vaccinarted categories (e.g. this with one dose) are dying at much higher rates than the unvaccinated
So ASMR is a way to contrive a Simpson's Paradox. That works if one is attempting to obscure age-stratified mortality differences. We saw the CDC doing that with 2021 covid mortality.
From the time it takes, to the deliberate fuzzing of data and changing the calculation methods, it is obvious to any layperson that this whole exercise constitutes one big coverup and burial. For it is a very simple exercise to produce accurate figures. Mind you, just from the start the intent was obvious. 28 days after a jab to be counted in as one of the saved… it tells you everything you needed to know.
None of this is difficult. It's not a resourcing issue either. The regulator warned them but is clearly toothless. Everything is broken. Deliberately.
Exactly. That's why I asked Sarah Caul this:
"Q: All your agency has ever published was data showing that unvaccinated are dying at a higher rate than vaccinated, but of course multiple researchers have shown problems with that, which you have partially acknowledged, yet you refuse to publish raw data and calculations.
Therefore, would your agency ever publish an analysis that shows that vaccinated are dying at an equal (or even higher) rate than unvaccinated, if that was truly the case?"
The truth must come out.
https://twitter.com/USMortality/status/1628500986242416640
Yup. Back in the 70s there would be general strikes and marches demanding resignations and trials.......
Depressingly predictable obfuscation from the ONS. Usual crap reporting from the Mail.
And censored comments.
Great work everyone. Considering we’ve been waiting for this data for many months now, you would have thought that they could have supplied better more reliable information. It’s clear they’ve spent the time trying to obfuscate; undercounting the denominator, trying to support the narrative; and now with all the independent analysis, the ONS does not look fit for purpose. This needs further reporting to the ombudsman.
What? Mainstream media didn't check any of the data before parroting the mantra?! Tell me it isn't so?!!
Contact them with the real story.
Yes, I'd love to see hundreds of people from Substack take a desperately deserved dump on that article
I plotted the same data as you %all death vaxxd 18-39 age group. Why is your curve 8% vertically shifted compared to mine?
Yes, the ONS report is largely of no value. Just a couple more points:
- The data excludes 3% of the population who did not respond to the 2021 census . That’s around 1.7million people. It also excludes 4.7 million people who were included in the census but who could not be linked to an NHS number. So that’s 6.4 million people who were excluded over 11% of the population of England. If they didn’t have NHS numbers then they’re unlikely to have been vaccinated.
- The notes to the report state that “the back series is produced from April 2021 rather than January 2021 because of the requirement for individuals to be alive on Census Day, 21 March 2021”
Fake data, missing data, hidden data ... it's all so tiresome.
“Silence can only be equated with fraud where there is a legal or moral duty to speak or where an inquiry left unanswered would be intentionally misleading.”
- U.S. vs. Prudden - U.S. Court of Appeals - Fifth Circuit - April 1970
Adding the Unvaccinated and Ever vaccinated for 2021 April/Dec and comparing to ONS published database for All Cause deaths 2020-21 forr the same April to Dec period, there appears to be more than 64,000 deaths missing from the latest report. If correct another fudge of the data! Maybe someone can validate.
we've updarted the article to address that. Also see https://drclarecraig.substack.com/p/deaths-among-the-ghost-population
Is there a link to the updated article? Thanks in advance. Also thanks for link to Dr Clare data studying now.
Our article is updated here (as we said it is an evolving piece).
Many thanks.
I am just so exasperated reading this. I don't know how you guys doing the analysis remain so professional and calm. Clearly the civil servants have done the job they are paid to do - screw up the data, frustrate the critics and plant a 'vaccines are wonderful' story in the Daily Mail.
I don't want to write Thank You every time, but thank you for transforming official opacity into reader clarity.
Age 64 I suddenly find statistics a compelling subject, who'd a thawt it!! Seriously well done people. you have shaken me from my middle class stupor over the last few months.
I wonder two things:
(1) are other types of ONS statistics equally flawed?
(2) are these flaws intentional or is it a difficult task with insufficient resources to get it right?
To a certain extent they are dependent on different health reporting/NHS systems and records. However, they have been aware of the problems for a long time and should be muhc more open about the limitations of the data
My parents' close friends' daughter works for the ONS and I remember them saying that their daughter had told them privately that they were cooking and manipulating the economic data such as inflation under instruction by the government... This was waaaaaay before the """""pandemic""""" ... Also I remember job adverts for us mathematics graduates at university - the ONS job ads always asked for much lower degree results than the other graduate/research career jobs did. Figures :-)
Thanks - interesting!
I was thinking about how the proportions of unvaccinated goes up after about march of 2022 in the ONS data. I sort of naively expected this to be non-increasing. Then I began to wonder if this increase may be somehow capturing disproportionate mortality in the vaccinated?
Also, the tables that seem to have counts for the vertical access, are they counts or ratios? Seems to me ratios would more clearly communicate the reality, as counts can be misleading.
None of the charts in this article are ours. This largely a roundup of other people's work.
Professor Fenton: To clarify is Ben from US Mortality saying that when you group together all vaccinated categories, they are dying at higher rates than the unvaccinated? If so that seems pretty darn compelling.
Not exactly. According to the ONS , using their ASMR metric if you group together all the different categories of vaccinated their rate of mortality is lower than the never vaccinated. But what Ben's plots show is that some of the vaccinarted categories (e.g. this with one dose) are dying at much higher rates than the unvaccinated
So ASMR is a way to contrive a Simpson's Paradox. That works if one is attempting to obscure age-stratified mortality differences. We saw the CDC doing that with 2021 covid mortality.
DDL, Ben is quite clear in his update of Feb.24:
"By gender and age group, unvaccinated mostly show lower mortality rates than vaccinated."
- https://usmortality.substack.com/p/round-2-of-ons-all-cause-mortality
From the time it takes, to the deliberate fuzzing of data and changing the calculation methods, it is obvious to any layperson that this whole exercise constitutes one big coverup and burial. For it is a very simple exercise to produce accurate figures. Mind you, just from the start the intent was obvious. 28 days after a jab to be counted in as one of the saved… it tells you everything you needed to know.