Where are the numbers? by Norman Fenton and Martin Neil | Substack

Modelling

On 20 Feb 2023 I did this live interview with James Freeman on TNT Radio, discussing Bayesian probability, PCR testing, increased cardiovascular…

Feb 22

An exposition on models and variables that might explain excess deaths.

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Jan 23

How do we calculate the probability of causation?

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Dec 22, 2022

Flawed Covid definitions, data and modelling Watch now (35 mins) | An end of year review

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Dec 10, 2022

Hugh Osmond recently put out this interesting twitter thread: Although the average age of death in the UK is around 82, if a person reaches 82 then on…

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Jan 24, 2022

The full pdf version of the following article (which includes the Appendix) can be found here. Paradoxes in the reporting of Covid19 vaccine…

Sep 15, 2021

Let's suppose that a museum decides to spend money in Sept 2020 advertising for new members. To see if the advert has worked you manage to find the data…

Feb 4, 2021

In a new paper we extend the recent work by Griffith et al which highlights how ‘collider bias’ in studies of COVID19 undermines our understanding of…

May 15, 2020

Last week we wrote about the importance of causal explanations for differences between countries' COVID-19 death rates, and the need for more random…

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Apr 9, 2020

Coronavirus: country comparisons are pointless unless we account for these biases in testing Norman Fenton, Queen Mary University of London; Magda…

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Apr 2, 2020

We know some strawberry flavoured sweets are contaminated. But, if wrapper colour is not a reliable indicator of the flavour of sweet it contains, what…

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Mar 29, 2020

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