Modelling

On conflicting polling results

A causal Bayesian explanation and method for handling conflicts

Sep 7 •

Exaggerated estimates from epidemiological modelling were growing exponentially during the 'pandemic'

Dashboards reflecting reality or manufacturing it?

May 8 •

,

Mr Law, Health and Technology

, and

Updating our own priors to accommodate new evidence

Revisiting our published work on covid infection prevalence and fatality rates from May 2020

Jan 30 •

and

Bayes, covid data, and censorship

On 20 Feb 2023 I did this live interview with James Freeman on TNT Radio, discussing Bayesian probability, PCR testing, increased cardiovascular…

Feb 22, 2023 •

A Weltanschauung causal model of excess deaths

An exposition on models and variables that might explain excess deaths.

Jan 23, 2023 •

and

Did the covid vaccine cause stiff person syndrome in Celine Dion?

How do we calculate the probability of causation?

Dec 22, 2022 •

and

Flawed Covid definitions, data and modelling

An end of year review

Dec 10, 2022 •

and

34:36

Computing years of lost life: why actuaries really need to be able to do counterfactual reasoning

Hugh Osmond recently put out this interesting twitter thread:

Jan 24, 2022 •

and

Paradoxes in the reporting of Covid19 vaccine effectiveness

The full pdf version of the following article (which includes the Appendix) can be found here.

Sep 15, 2021 •

What can we learn from very few data points (with implications for excess death numbers)?

Let's suppose that a museum decides to spend money in Sept 2020 advertising for new members.

Feb 4, 2021 •

Why most studies into COVID19 risk factors may be producing flawed conclusions - and how to fix the problem

In a new paper we extend the recent work by Griffith et al which highlights how ‘collider bias’ in studies of COVID19 undermines our understanding of…

May 15, 2020 •

Coronavirus: country comparisons are pointless unless we account for these biases in testing (reprint of our article in The Conversation)

Coronavirus: country comparisons are pointless unless we account for these biases in testing

Apr 2, 2020 •

and

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