Modelling

Exaggerated estimates from epidemiological modelling were growing exponentially during the 'pandemic'

Dashboards reflecting reality or manufacturing it? Acting in ‘journalist mode’ Martin recently wrote an article for the Conservative Woman online…

May 8 •

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Mr Law, Health and Technology

, and

Updating our own priors to accommodate new evidence

Revisiting our published work on covid infection prevalence and fatality rates from May 2020

Jan 30 •

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Bayes, covid data, and censorship

On 20 Feb 2023 I did this live interview with James Freeman on TNT Radio, discussing Bayesian probability, PCR testing, increased cardiovascular…

Feb 22, 2023 •

A Weltanschauung causal model of excess deaths

An exposition on models and variables that might explain excess deaths.

Jan 23, 2023 •

and

Did the covid vaccine cause stiff person syndrome in Celine Dion?

How do we calculate the probability of causation?

Dec 22, 2022 •

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Flawed Covid definitions, data and modelling

An end of year review

Dec 10, 2022 •

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34:36

Computing years of lost life: why actuaries really need to be able to do counterfactual reasoning

Hugh Osmond recently put out this interesting twitter thread:

Jan 24, 2022 •

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Paradoxes in the reporting of Covid19 vaccine effectiveness

The full pdf version of the following article (which includes the Appendix) can be found here.

Sep 15, 2021 •

What can we learn from very few data points (with implications for excess death numbers)?

Let's suppose that a museum decides to spend money in Sept 2020 advertising for new members.

Feb 4, 2021 •

Why most studies into COVID19 risk factors may be producing flawed conclusions - and how to fix the problem

In a new paper we extend the recent work by Griffith et al which highlights how ‘collider bias’ in studies of COVID19 undermines our understanding of…

May 15, 2020 •

Coronavirus: country comparisons are pointless unless we account for these biases in testing (reprint of our article in The Conversation)

Coronavirus: country comparisons are pointless unless we account for these biases in testing

Apr 2, 2020 •

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COVID-19: the need for more random testing combined with causal modelling

We know some strawberry flavoured sweets are contaminated.

Mar 29, 2020 •

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