Modelling

Did governments mismanage the COVID-19 pandemic?

International Researchers Call for Re-Evaluation of Pandemic Strategies

Jun 2 •

A Bayesian Network model of pregnancy outcomes for England and Wales

A new paper by lead author Scott McLachlan has been published in the journal Computers in Biology and Medicine.

May 27 •

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Dr Scott McLachlan

On conflicting polling results

A causal Bayesian explanation and method for handling conflicts

Sep 7, 2024 •

Exaggerated estimates from epidemiological modelling were growing exponentially during the 'pandemic'

Dashboards reflecting reality or manufacturing it?

May 8, 2024 •

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Dr Scott McLachlan

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Updating our own priors to accommodate new evidence

Revisiting our published work on covid infection prevalence and fatality rates from May 2020

Jan 30, 2024 •

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Bayes, covid data, and censorship

On 20 Feb 2023 I did this live interview with James Freeman on TNT Radio, discussing Bayesian probability, PCR testing, increased cardiovascular…

Feb 22, 2023 •

A Weltanschauung causal model of excess deaths

An exposition on models and variables that might explain excess deaths.

Jan 23, 2023 •

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Did the covid vaccine cause stiff person syndrome in Celine Dion?

How do we calculate the probability of causation?

Dec 22, 2022 •

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Flawed Covid definitions, data and modelling

An end of year review

Dec 10, 2022 •

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34:36

Computing years of lost life: why actuaries really need to be able to do counterfactual reasoning

Hugh Osmond recently put out this interesting twitter thread:

Jan 24, 2022 •

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Paradoxes in the reporting of Covid19 vaccine effectiveness

The full pdf version of the following article (which includes the Appendix) can be found here.

Sep 15, 2021 •

What can we learn from very few data points (with implications for excess death numbers)?

Let's suppose that a museum decides to spend money in Sept 2020 advertising for new members.

Feb 4, 2021 •

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