Statistical Paradoxes and Illusions

Suffering a stroke 15 minutes after Covid vaccine dose

What's the probability the vaccine caused the stroke?

Dec 18, 2024 •

The Statistics of Poverty

How to perpetuate a crisis by definition

Nov 25, 2024 •

The boy girl 'paradox'

Is it really the most counterintuitive probability paradox ever seen?

Oct 3, 2024 •

Collider bias and the problem with vaccine case-control studies

How the bias can lead to the wrong conclusions about treatment effectiveness

Sep 19, 2024 •

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On conflicting polling results

A causal Bayesian explanation and method for handling conflicts

Sep 7, 2024 •

What is the probability that the Bayesians died by chance?

Unlikely ... but not as unlikely as most are assuming

Aug 27, 2024 •

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The probability of coincidences

When is a coincidence not a coincidence?

Dec 31, 2023 •

Survivor bias cuts both ways and can be erroneously used to argue both for and against vaccine safety

An example based on deadly cinema attendance

Dec 13, 2023 •

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Our Top Ten posts that you likely never saw

Although this substack was not launched until December 2022 we imported many articles from our previous blog. Here are 10 posts in chronological order…

Oct 2, 2023 •

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Vaccine efficacy 'cheap trick' by exclusion

Simply ignoring - rather than misclassifying recently vaccinated cases - also creates the illusion of efficacy.

Sep 1, 2023 •

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The Very Best of Cheap Trick.....

How widespread is the (mal)practice of miscategorising vaccination status?

Jul 29, 2023 •

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The Dark Horse Podcast reports on 'the illusion of vaccine efficacy '

In episode #179 ‘Science Strong and Fragile’ Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying discuss in depth our substack article on ‘the illusion of vaccine…

Jun 25, 2023 •

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